Is Donald Trump a mermaid?

This title may be a bit disturbing at first, but you should be ok as long as you don’t conjure up any mental images which mess with your sleeping patterns.

Let me explain what I mean with that question.

Many people, when hearing the word mermaid, will think about Daryl Hannah in Splash, or about the 1989 Disney movie about a Little Mermaid. You could, in fact, probably gather something about people’s age just by which of those two images first comes to their mind. In both cases, mermaids were pretty cool (I have to say I go more for Daryl Hannah).

However, mermaids did not start out that way. Odysseus’ sailors, on their tortuous return voyage to Ithaca after the surrender of Troy (The Odyssey, by Homer, 8^th Century BC), were exposed to the dangers of Bronze Age mermaids, then called sirens. The deal was that the mermaids attracted sailors with their enchanting songs, the sailors followed the songs and they shipwrecked on the rocks of the mermaid island (the location of this island has not been clearly identified, although I now think it may be in Manhattan, soon to move to Washington DC).

Donald Trump has stated in an interview in the last couple of days that a trade deal with the UK would be a priority for him. This has been received with glee (or maybe just relief) by Brexiters, who I imagine cannot help to be a bit concerned by the UK’s impending abandonment of the EU. I guess people find comfort in thinking that you can get to be a multibillionaire by doing what you like to do, not what is in your best interest. However, my experience is that, if you want to accumulate billions, you need to have your interest at heart in any process you are involved in. So, if we are to accept, which I think most reasonable people would, that whatever Trump is saying is because he sees it to be in his best interest, then we should ask ourselves, why is Trump saying that at this point?

One explanation, probably widely spread amongst Brexiters, is that Trump can clearly see that trading with the UK is greatly advantageous to US, and he sees this as being highly significant. Throw in a bit of special relationship, this locker room (a Trump speciality) concept which is supposed to make US presidents put UK interest in front of their own, and you have your justification. Trump is keen to get to a trade deal with UK because trading with the UK is the key to US’s success in the New World order.

Is this true? What are the facts we need to know to evaluate this?

• US annual trade with UK (2015 figures) is $56Bn exports, $58Bn imports. (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c4120.html)
• US annual trade with EU (2015 figures) is $272Bn exports, $427Bn imports. (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html)
• US annual trade with China (2015 figures) is $116Bn exports, $483Bn imports (https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html)
• US total annual international trade is $1,505Bn exports, $2,241Bn imports (https://www.statista.com/statistics/218255/total-value-of-us-trade-in-goods-worldwide-since-2004/)

I actually cannot resist the temptation to plot this for effect. You can see the figures below.

So, no wonder Trump thinks it cannot be without a trade deal with the UK. 3.7% of US exports and 2.6% of US imports are to UK. A trade deal with UK has to be his first priority! Keep telling yourself that, but, as I already wrote in previous posts, the repetition of clearly unfounded arguments does not make them true. Real causes are based on real facts.

I am now introducing a new saying. If it does not make sense, it is probably not true.

So, what could be an alternative explanation to what Trump is doing and the timing of it? I am now going to attempt an incredibly dangerous stunt: put myself in the head of Donald Trump. Exercise extreme caution if trying this at home.

Trump is promising to make the US great again. In American minds, that means leading the World economy. Being the World’s biggest economy. How are they doing on this? If you take a look at the United Nations 2015 list of countries by Nominal GDP (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)), the ranking is:

• 1^st: EU, $18,518,430 Mn
• 2^nd US, $18,036,648 Mn
• 3^rd China, $11,158,457 Mn

There is a caveat here, which is that nominal GDP is affected by exchange rates. Since China are artificially holding down the value of their currency, the RMB, if we were to use the more ‘truthful’ measure of GDP by Purchasing Power Parity (adjusting exchange rate anomalies) the US would be third, as China already overtook both US and EU in either 2015 or 2016 depending on who you listen to (see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)). But this is for another post, another day. In any case, US is, at best, second.

So, to make America great again, Number One, Man!, Trump can do 2 things:

OPTION A: Grow the US economy significantly (not that easy, especially at a time when many more countries are joining global competition, which is, by the way, a good thing in my book, as it spreads wealth to places which have had none until now, and to people who are prepared to work hard for a reward, as we are in the West, countries, for example, like Laos, Vietnam, Indonesia, etc.)

Or…

OPTION B: Make the EU smaller! Let’s do some Trump magic and take the UK figures away from the EU’s. Look at the ranking above again now:

• 1^st US, $18,036,648 Mn
• 2^nd EU, $15,660,427 Mn
• 3^rd China, $11,158,457 Mn (with the same caveat)

So, as if by magic, all Trump has to do to deliver on his promise is encourage the UK to abandon the EU, changing course and sailing to a potential shipwreck. Julius Caesar already coined this strategy with his famous ‘divide et impera’, or ‘Divide and conquer’, although Sun Tzu would probably claim he wrote it first in ‘The Art of War’, nearly 3,000 years ago.

The metaphor is completed by the fact that (and I have not checked this, so I am going from memory, don’t hold me to it) the mermaids in Homer’s poem (if you have not read it, you really should, essential reading in my view) wanted the ships to shipwreck as they would then eat the sailors. Now, just imagine Donald Trump, not exactly the first person that would come to your mind when hearing the word Win-Win, negotiating a trade deal with the UK at a time when the UK are desperate to strike trade deals quickly and are trying to replace 50% of their international trade, talking to someone who only has 3% of their international trade on the table, and 4 to 8 years to do the deal. I think many in the UK trade mission may find being eaten by traditional, better looking (á la Daryl Hannah) mermaids preferable.

Worryingly, if you look at the more relevant PPP table, once Trump overtakes the EU by helping the UK separate and fall into its jaws, the next thing he needs to do is slow down the Chinese economy. That would explain what is starting to go on in the South China Sea, what may happen with the Strait of Malacca and why the Thucydides Trap, another ancient idea, may still stand. I will blog on that next if I don’t get distracted, but, if you cannot wait and you really have the time, you should read ‘Easternisation’, by Gideon Rachman, and ‘Prisoners of Geography’, by Tim Marshall. Two outstanding analyses of current geopolitics.